Deliberate effort applied to thinking is a way to provide best guesses about ambiguity—uncertain situations, uncertain actions by an competitor, and uncertain outcomes.^[1] One way to be prepared is to have an initial set of questions to ask yourself when faced with uncertainty.^[1] Developing a practice of asking questions will prompt additional reasoning.^[1]

The following table provides some example questions to focus thinking.

A natural tendency is to discount information when it does not fit into expectations.^[1] Some refer to this as a confirmation bias, but that reference implies a conscious or active process when it usually is not.^[1] It is difficult to undo individual’s assessment or conclusion once it forms.^[1] The first step to protect against the discounting of unexpected signals is to pay attention to information that does not fit expectations.^[1] Assessment of the information can indicate whether an understanding needs to change.^[1] If no definite determination can be made, even heightened vigilance for changes should occur.^[1]